Nov 7, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 7 17:20:57 UTC 2015 (20151107 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20151107 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20151107 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20151107 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071720

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH
   FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MIDDLE
   MS VALLEY AREA. A WEAKER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST
   REGION. FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES
   THE WRN U.S. COAST.  

   ...GULF COAST THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...

   A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO THE NRN GULF AND THE NRN FL
   PENINSULA...POSSIBLY BECOMING STATIONARY AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN-STREAM
   IMPULSE. AUGMENTED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
   GULF...BUT EXTENDING INTO THE POST FRONTAL REGION ALONG THE CNTRL
   AND NERN GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE FL PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL FL
   PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MARGINAL RISK...BUT AT THIS
   TIME THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO WEAK
   FOR A 5% OR GREATER SEVERE RISK.  

   ...PACIFIC NW THROUGH NRN CA...

   DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
   DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 11/07/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z