Jan 8, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 8 08:32:01 UTC 2015 (20150108 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150108 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150108 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150108 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080832

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CST THU JAN 08 2015

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN THROUGH CNTRL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AT
   THIS TIME COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   SPARSE.

   ...SRN THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN TX...

   WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER
   SRN THROUGH CNTRL TX EARLY SATURDAY AS A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVES ABOVE AN AREA OF CP SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS 6.5-7 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ADVECT
   NEWD AND A NOSE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS TRANSPORTED NEWD ABOVE THE
   LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER. THIS REGIME WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
   TIME...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
   FOR A 10% OR GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

   ..DIAL.. 01/08/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z