Storm Prediction Center Jan 18, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


Jan 18, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 18 08:29:51 UTC 2015 ( \| )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 3 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Graphic

20150118 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

Day 3 Prob. Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 180829

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS
   TUESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST IN ADDITION TO CA/SOUTHWEST STATES. AHEAD OF
   A WEAK COLD FRONT SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   CONUS...SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION/MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL
   OCCUR ALONG THE GULF COAST/FL...BUT RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
   WILL NONETHELESS PERSIST ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONUS. A STRAY
   THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED DURING THE DAY
   ACROSS FAR SOUTH FL/FL KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS...BUT THE OVERALL
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY LIMITED /SUB-10
   PERCENT/.

   ..GUYER.. 01/18/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z