Feb 12, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 12 07:28:07 UTC 2015 (20150212 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150212 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150212 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150212 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120728

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 AM CST THU FEB 12 2015

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. ON SATURDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD/DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL LOW-LEVEL AIR IS
   FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WITH TIME...AS A STRONG
   UPPER VORTEX DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NY/PA/NJ VICINITY
   DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT
   WHERE RAPID DEEPENING WILL OCCUR.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS
   CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO LIE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A
   STRONG COLD FRONT HAVING SWEPT SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.

   IN THE W...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED WWD INTO THE ERN
   PACIFIC...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGS SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA
   TOWARD/INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  AS A RESULT...A BROADLY
   CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE U.S. BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.  OVERALL...DRY/STABLE AIR RESIDING OVER THE
   COUNTRY WILL ONCE AGAIN HINDER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.

   ..GOSS.. 02/12/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z