Mar 12, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 12 05:44:15 UTC 2015 (20150312 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150312 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150312 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150312 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120544

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ONLY ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
   EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MOST PLACES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ONLY
   RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SERN STATES BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH. A
   POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
   INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
   ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SOME
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
   STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
   DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.

   ...ERN CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA...
   DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-60 F RANGE WILL
   SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS SRN GA. WEAK
   CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
   SOMEWHAT LOW-TOPPED IN NATURE GIVEN WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/12/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z