Apr 3, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 3 06:57:10 UTC 2015 (20150403 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150403 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150403 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150403 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030657

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RELATIVELY FLAT/LARGELY WLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
   OVER THE U.S. DAY 3/SUN...THOUGH THE LOW/TROUGH JUST OFF THE PAC NW
   COAST EARLY IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SEWD/PARTIALLY INLAND WITH TIME. 
   THE ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL FACILITATE THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A
   SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  FARTHER E...SURFACE
   LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS WITH TIME OWING TO PERSISTENT WLYS ALOFT ACROSS THE CO
   FRONT RANGE.  IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   WILL TURN SSELY/SLY WITH TIME ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...ON THE
   BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATING EWD INTO THE
   WRN ATLANTIC.

   SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
   PARTS OF NRN CA AND THE PAC NW...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS SRN
   MT/NWRN WY...AS THE WRN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS SHIFTING INLAND ALONG
   WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE UVV.

   ELEVATED CONVECTION -- ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS
   OF THE SRN PLAINS -- SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...AS
   ELEVATED RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS
   S-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.

   ..GOSS.. 04/03/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z