SPC AC 080727

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   AND CAROLINAS VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN HALF
   OF TX EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUND BOTH SLIGHT RISK AREAS
   -- EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD/WWD ACROSS TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY.  THE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY THE APPALACHIANS EAST TO THE
   ATLANTIC COAST...AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES INTO
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS
   PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT NERN U.S. THROUGH
   THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY FLAT/ZONAL FLOW TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
   U.S. IN ITS WAKE.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROGRESS STEADILY EWD...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS TO
   MOVE INTO THE E COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENTUALLY
   SHIFTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT.  FARTHER TO THE SW
   HOWEVER...TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE GULF
   COASTAL VICINITY AND INTO CENTRAL/S TX...BUT LINGER THERE THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
   SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING NEAR AND W OF THE APPALACHIANS
   AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT -- TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY.  DEPENDING
   UPON THE SPEED OF THE ADVANCE OF THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION INTO THE E
   COAST STATES...SOME AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
   OCCUR...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. 
   WHILE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SUGGESTS QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT...MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AND ATTENDANT
   RISKS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED
   SEVERE RISK -- SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

   ...THE SRN HALF OF TX EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
   ONGOING CONVECTION IS FORECAST ALONG THE SAGGING COLD FRONT AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDINESS CASTING
   UNCERTAINTY UPON DEGREE OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR
   THROUGH THE DAY NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT.  PRESUMING AMPLE
   DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AT LEAST LOCALLY...AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST...WITH STORM ORGANIZATION
   TO BE AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL SELYS PROGGED ACROSS THIS AREA BENEATH
   MODERATE WSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS.  AS SUCH...RISK FOR HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO -- WARRANTS
   INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..GOSS.. 04/08/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z