SPC AC 210723

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND LA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AND
   LOUISIANA. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
   AND NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SIERRA NEVADA.

   ...TX/LA...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   ON THURSDAY WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR IN PLACE FROM CNTRL TX EWD INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN SPITE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP BUT THIS WILL BE
   DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT CAN NOT BE RESOLVED AT THIS
   TIME. THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WOULD BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN CNTRL AND NE TX.
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTING
   FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS MCS FROM NE TX SEWD INTO CNTRL LA.
    
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/FRI AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND WACO SHOW
   IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND
   MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
   FORECAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD EASILY
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL. FURTHER TO
   THE EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/FRI AT MONROE LA SHOW MLCAPE
   NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/21/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z