Jun 2, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 2 07:36:23 UTC 2015 (20150602 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150602 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150602 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 55,151 300,112 Hays, KS...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...Torrington, WY...
MARGINAL 403,049 24,136,709 Jacksonville, FL...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150602 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 55,151 300,112 Hays, KS...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...Torrington, WY...
5 % 403,692 24,286,092 Jacksonville, FL...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 020736

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES AS WELL.

   ...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED INTO
   THURSDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SOUTHWARD-DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER
   CA/SOUTHWEST STATES AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EAST
   OF THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...UPPER RIDGE-RELATED WARMING/CAPPING
   ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL MCS IMPACTS/OUTFLOW ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST DETAILS.

   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL MCS FORMATION
   COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY VICINITY...BUT THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO
   MAY BE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS
   THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH AID OF MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE
   UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE MODEST FORCING/CAPPING ARE POINTS OF
   UNCERTAINTY...OTHER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
   OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS KS NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 06/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z