Jul 22, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 22 07:30:13 UTC 2015 (20150722 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150722 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150722 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 79,907 6,083,224 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
MARGINAL 262,097 16,919,301 Jacksonville, FL...Omaha, NE...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150722 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 79,907 6,083,224 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
5 % 262,012 16,934,265 Jacksonville, FL...Omaha, NE...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Lincoln, NE...
   SPC AC 220730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER
   MS RIVER VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL
   PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER MIDWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODEST LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE
   TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER VICINITY COINCIDENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-AMPLITUDE/NEARLY
   ZONAL WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
   ACROSS PARTS OF MN AND NORTHERN/FAR WESTERN WI...AND POSSIBLY PARTS
   OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...ALTHOUGH CAPPING/MID-LEVEL WARMTH WILL
   STEADILY INCREASE WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
   FRONT. BOUTS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS PARTICULARLY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL PENINSULA...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
   SOUTHEAST STATES/NEARBY ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
   MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   FL PENINSULA/NEARBY GA. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   MAY ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AS THUNDERSTORMS DIURNALLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER.. 07/22/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z