Sep 8, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 8 07:01:55 UTC 2015 (20150908 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150908 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150908 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150908 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080701

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
   EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE US WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE MOST COMMON
   DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY FROM THE SWRN INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER...ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC STATES REGIONS.  VERY MOIST
   BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL
   THREAT OF SEVERE WITH THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  CONVECTION
   THAT EVOLVES ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS WILL DO SO WITHIN A
   WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME AND UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE DUE
   TO WEAK FORCING/LAPSE RATES.

   ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...SECONDARY MORE
   SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SURGE WILL ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL
   IA...SWWD INTO NWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
   ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG WIND SHIFT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
   WHILE FORECAST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
   PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT...STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT MAY PROVE
   ADEQUATE FOR GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

   ..DARROW.. 09/08/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z