SPC AC 160712

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015

   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PART
   OF THE INTERIOR WEST ON SUNDAY.

   ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...
   A PAIR OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEST COAST
   AND EAST COAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 
   APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
   CHARACTER OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED
   SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   INTERIOR WEST DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  HOWEVER...LARGE VARIABILITY
   IN THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --AS DEPICTED IN LATEST SUITE
   OF OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE-- MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
   LARGER-SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR
   THIS FORECAST.  IT IS POSSIBLE A SPEED MAX MOVES OVER THE NV/AZ/UT
   VICINITY DURING THE DAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
   STORM VIGOR.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ANTICIPATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
   PROFILES AND RELATIVELY LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE --AS IMPLIED
   BY MODEL OUTPUT-- WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY.  THE
   AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF
   LOW-SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..SMITH.. 10/16/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z