SPC AC 150602

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
   FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT CLOSED LOW THAT MOVED ONSHORE WA/ORE ON THURSDAY WILL DIG
   TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITHIN A DEEPENING PARENT TROUGH ACROSS THE
   WEST INTO THE ROCKIES REGION.  THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
   INTO A LARGER CLOSED LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY.  A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER
   SOUTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING
   SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS OF FAR WEST TX.  THIS LATTER FEATURE
   SHOULD RETREAT WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD EXTEND
   FROM EASTERN ND TO NORTHEAST CO AND SOUTH TO THE SURFACE LOW BY
   16/00Z.  MEANWHILE...A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH
   SHOULD DECAY AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH IN THE
   SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
   THE COUNTRY. 

   ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   WILL CONSIST OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS...GIVEN THE LACK OF
   SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD RESULT
   IN GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS AT PEAK HEATING AHEAD
   OF THE DRYLINE INTO FAR EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS TO SOUTHWEST NEB. 
   DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BENEATH RATHER
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ SHOULD RESULT IN A
   NARROW PLUME OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. 

   A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE BASAL
   PORTION OF THE DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH SHOULD REACH
   NORTHEAST NM INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING. 
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO 1/ THIS LEAD IMPULSE...2/ HEIGHT
   FALLS WITH THE PARENT TROUGH...AND 3/ INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR
   AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE
   WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-21Z.  SEVERAL OF THE CAMS
   SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS WILL FORM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IN EASTERN
   CO AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY LINE.  GIVEN THE DIGGING CLOSED
   LOW/TROUGH...STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
   TROUGH AXIS WITH HODOGRAPHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NOT
   EXHIBITING ELONGATION ALOFT /ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT/.  A
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WESTERN KS
   AND ADJACENT PART OF NEB THIS EVENING WILL ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS FOR A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   40-50 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAINTAIN THE SCENARIO FOR INITIALLY RELATIVELY
   HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
   MAIN THREATS.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED MORE
   PERPENDICULAR WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE DRY LINE INTO TX
   SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL TEND TO BE MORE DISCRETE.  STORMS WILL
   THEN TRANSITION TO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
   A RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS...CENTERED ON THE CO/KS BORDER AREA AND
   SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY
   ACTIVITY...REGENERATIVE /LARGELY ELEVATED/ STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
   EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL.

   ...CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL...
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL MAINTAIN 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
   500-MB WESTERLIES MAY BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO THURSDAY OWING TO THE
   DECAYING NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH...VERTICALLY
   VEERING WINDS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 40 KT. 
   DESPITE A WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO EXIT FL INTO THE ATLANTIC AT THE
   START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND MINOR MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES...
   SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
   ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT
   THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREATS.

   ..PETERS/KERR.. 04/15/2016

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