SPC AC 261655

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL TX NWD INTO SERN
   NEB...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM
   S CNTRL TX NNE INTO THE LWR MO AND MID-MS VLYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
   FROM S TX INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
   FROM THE SRN AND  CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST...

   CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC

   ...SUMMARY...
   A WIDESPREAD...MULTI-EPISODE...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WEATHER EVENT
   APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   NR CO UPR LOW WILL PIVOT ENE AS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THIS
   PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MS VLY...S AND W OF
   QSTNRY SE CANADA VORTEX. SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA SUGGEST TWO
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF NOTE IN BASE OF CO SYSTEM...ONE NOW OVER FAR W
   TX...AND THE OTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER.
   BOTH FEATURES SHOULD TURN NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH
   TNGT...LARGELY GOVERNING DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   REGION. FARTHER NE...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ALONG SRN FLANK OF CANADIAN LOW...THE LEAD ONE
   OF WHICH WILL MOVE OF THE NJ CST THIS EVE.

   ...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
   VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BROAD CORRIDOR
   OF SBCAPE AOA 3500 J/KG FROM W CNTRL TX NNE INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS
   /COURTESY OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SURMOUNTED BY DEEP AND
   PRONOUNCED EML/...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE WITH MDT TO STRONG SFC
   HEATING TODAY.

   COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD PROMOTE INTENSE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH FROM W
   CNTRL TX NNE INTO OK AND KS. SIZABLE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO 700-500
   MB FLOW ATTM DOWNSTREAM FROM THE IMPULSE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LVL
   BOUNDARY WILL SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL EWD MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY.

   STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW WITH APPROACH/EJECTION OF UPR
   IMPULSES /WITH 700-500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS FROM NW TX
   INTO WRN/CNTRL OK/ LIKELY WILL PROMOTE NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND STRONG TORNADOES. ESPECIALLY IN
   TX AND SRN OK...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN
   BANDS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN
   ADDITION LARGE HAIL AND SWATHS OF DMGG WIND ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX.

   SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST IN THE NEAR TERM FOR CURRENT ELEVATED
   STORMS IN CNTRL OK TO TAP INTO THE WARMING/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER. WERE THIS TO OCCUR...SUCH A SCENARIO COULD JUMP-START SVR
   WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
   HAIL...NEWD INTO SE KS BY THIS AFTN.

   ...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
   HEATING AND APPROACH OF LEAD IMPULSE ALSO WILL SUPPORT RENEWED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT INVOF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QSTNRY SYNOPTIC FRONT
   OVER KS-MO-SRN NEB AREA LATER THIS AFTN. WHILE WIND PROFILES
   INITIALLY WILL BE WEAKER AN EXHIBIT BACK-VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT...PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS LATER
   TODAY THROUGH LATE TNGT. TORNADOES
   COULD OCCUR AS THE LIKELY NNE-MOVING STORMS INTERACT WITH ENHANCED
   SRH NEAR THE SLOWLY-MOVING BOUNDARIES.

   ...MID-MS VLY TO MID-ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN...
   RESIDUAL EML DEPICTED ON MORNING RAOBS FROM THE OH VLY TO
   MID-ATLANTIC CST WILL PROMOTE BOWING STRUCTURES IN DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW IN BASE OF CANADIAN VORTEX. HEATING...WIND
   PROFILES...AND DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE
   MOST FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DMGG WIND GUSTS IN PA AND NJ...BUT MORE
   SLOWLY-MOVING CELLS WITH A MORE LOCALIZED WIND THREAT CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT OVER THE MID AND LWR OH VLYS. IN ADDITION...CURRENT CNTRL
   MO MCS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO
   MID-LATE AFTN...DESPITE WEAKENING FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT...GIVEN
   ON-GOING DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT.

   ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 04/26/2016

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