SPC AC 011933

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TN ACROSS KY AND INTO
   SRN IN AND OH...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY
   INTO THE SERN STATES AND OVER SRN TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WIND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE ISOLATED
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
   CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS.

   ...OH VALLEY INTO TN...
   STORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM WRN KY INTO
   TN...WHERE STRONG HEATING CONTINUES AND WITH RELATIVELY LONG
   STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL. AS SUCH...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK SWD. OTHER STORMS ARE
   ALSO LIKELY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND
   INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. LARGE HAIL
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   ...SRN TX...
   A STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CONVERGENCE REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW OVER SWRN
   LA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT
   OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SELY LOW
   LEVEL JET INCREASES AND AID IN LIFT WARM ADVECTION.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/01/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016/

   ...OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NW MO/SW IA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
   TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE MOVING EWD TO IL/INDIANA BY
   THIS EVENING...AND OH/WRN PA OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
   LOW WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH...IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  THE WARM
   SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY
   INTO THE 75-80 F RANGE IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BREAKS.  THE NET RESULT
   WILL BE MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J PER KG/ AND
   LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG AND S OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE OH RIVER...PRIMARILY IN
   RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE
   WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   AND POSSIBLY STORM SPLITS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
   WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD WV
   THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER N...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO
   FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
   FROM SE IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH LATE EVENING.

   ...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
   ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER LA/MS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD
   TOWARD THE NRN GULF SHELF WATERS...AND SPREAD EWD INTO AL THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.  OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
   NRN SC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A LOOSE CLUSTER OF STORMS INTERACTS WITH
   A SURFACE FRONT.  

   ...S TX/RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD INTO S TX...BUT A STRONG
   CAP IS PRESENT PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION.  IT IS MORE PROBABLE
   THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS W-SW OF DRT...BUT IF AND
   HOW FAR THESE STORMS MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IS NOT CLEAR. 
   WILL LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO COVER THE CONDITIONAL RISK
   FOR BOTH SCENARIOS.

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