SPC AC 092000

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OK...MUCH
   OF AR...AND FAR N-CNTRL/NE TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE 
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...OZARKS AND ARKLATEX.
   TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

   ...20Z UPDATE...
   OVERALL OUTLOOK APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ADJUSTED THE TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES BACK W TOWARDS I-35 IN S OK TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN
   RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SIGTOR
   AREA WAS LEFT UNCHANGED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST E OF ADM EWD TO DEQ AND THEN
   NEWD TO N OF LIT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN STORM INTENSIFICATION.
   ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN THE SIGTOR DELINEATION IS
   CURRENTLY CLOUDY...WHICH IS PREVENTING MIXING AND HELPING TO KEEP
   THE SURFACE-WINDS BACKED. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   AS MENTIONED IN MCD 569...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
   MO VALLEY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY ISOLATED HAIL CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED. HAIL PROBABILITIES WERE REMOVED ACROSS MUCH THIS
   REGION. 

   ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT IS
   AVAILABLE IN MCDS 567 AND 568 AND WATCHES 154 AND 155.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/09/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016/

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.  LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF
   THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   EASTERN KS AND MUCH OF MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  MANY OF THESE
   STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE FIRST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   DRYLINE FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK.  VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG...AND FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. 
   ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE MAIN TORNADO RISK
   APPEARS TO RAMP UP AS THE STORMS TRACK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OK
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO AR DURING THE EVENING. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
   THIS AREA...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES.  A
   CONSENSUS OF 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF INTENSE
   SUPERCELLS AFFECTING THIS AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A
   SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK ACROSS MUCH OF AR BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
   APPROACHES THE MS RIVER.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z