SPC AC 181933

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

   VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN AND AROUND THE EL PASO
   VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AZ TO DEEP SOUTH
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SOUTHERN FL
   PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND AN
   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST MAY OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
   NEW MEXICO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO DEEP SOUTH
   TEXAS.  A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
   OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   HAVE MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO 1630Z OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO EXPAND
   CAT1 SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TX AND ACROSS
   SWRN NM/SERN AZ.  EARLY-DAY CONVECTION THAT FORMED WEST OF THE RIO
   GRANDE HAS CONGEALED INTO A SMALL ORGANIZED COMPLEX OVER DEEP SOUTH
   TX.  LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS
   OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER SRN JIM HOGG AND NRN STARR COUNTY. 
   THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MIGRATE OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST WITHIN A FEW
   HOURS.

   UPSTREAM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND MATURING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
   AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM SERN AZ INTO SRN NM ALONG CORRIDOR
   OF RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION AND TSTMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD INTO FAR WEST TX LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.  HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..DARROW.. 05/18/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL EWD
   ADVANCE...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
   ACROSS THE W TX VICINITY.  AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
   INTRUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY E OF THE ROCKIES.

   ...S CENTRAL NM SEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX...
   COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A
   SOLID SURGE OF COOL CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME S TX
   APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE RISK ACROSS MOST OF TX THIS PERIOD.

   WITH THAT SAID...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF N CENTRAL MEXICO...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING CAN SUPPORT SOME
   DESTABILIZATION.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO RESIDE
   OVER FAR SERN NM AND FAR W TX...WHERE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
   SPREAD W OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY S/W OF
   THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY SPREAD EWD...AIDED BY INCREASING ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
   DESERT SW.  WITH AMPLE SHEAR ALOFT...A FEW STORMS MAY EXHIBIT
   MID-LEVEL ROTATION -- ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  DURING
   THE EVENING...STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO
   VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU...BECOMING ELEVATED ATOP A MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   ...SRN HALF OF FL...
   DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN
   HALF OF FL -- WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING WSW-ENE ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PENINSULA SHOULD MARK A ROUGH NRN EDGE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MORE VIGOROUS STORMS.  A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WITH ANY RISK DIMINISHING
   INTO EARLY EVENING.

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