May 23, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 23 05:55:38 UTC 2016 (20160523 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160523 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160523 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 58,399 492,889 Midland, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Big Spring, TX...Altus, OK...
SLIGHT 265,678 13,201,070 Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
MARGINAL 357,055 29,981,378 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160523 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 62,291 489,691 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Big Spring, TX...Altus, OK...Liberal, KS...
2 % 198,578 8,502,690 Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160523 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 321,918 13,648,271 Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
5 % 359,396 30,032,234 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160523 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 87,488 986,432 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...San Angelo, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...
30 % 58,399 492,889 Midland, TX...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Big Spring, TX...Altus, OK...
15 % 264,810 13,174,056 Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...
5 % 357,194 30,007,093 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
   SPC AC 230555

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN KS...WRN OK...AND
   WEST TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD AREA OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY...W OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL REACH THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
   WILL DECELERATE EWD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN
   MN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
   SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. 

   ...WRN KS SWD INTO SWRN TX...
   EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE E OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING TO OCCUR AS A DRYLINE
   MIXES EWD FROM SWRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY MID-AFTERNOON.
   THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AMIDST STRONG HEATING
   AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST
   3000-4000 J/KG BECOMING ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING PEAK
   HEATING. TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD LARGELY BE DRIVEN
   BY DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONGLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY-LAYER...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE /OVER BAJA CA AS OF 23/06Z/ MAY
   BE FAVORABLY TIMED TO FURTHER ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM
   YESTERDAY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
   SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT INITIALLY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD
   INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   STRENGTHENS AND LCLS LOWER. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION
   WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS BY LATE EVENING AND MOVE EWD ACROSS OK
   AND N TX. 

   MORE UNCERTAIN IS HOW FAR N/E TSTM INITIATION AND ASSOCIATED SVR
   THREAT WILL EXTEND DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN
   THE MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PLACED ACROSS CNTRL
   KS. ADDITIONALLY...A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
   ERN CO DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT ITS ARRIVAL ACROSS NWRN KS
   WILL SLIGHTLY LAG PEAK HEATING WHERE A MORE FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS IN
   PLACE. SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS MORE CONDITIONAL.

   ...NEB INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
   AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MN INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY THIS
   MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH EWD
   PROGRESSION. NEW DEVELOPMENT OR RE-STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION ALONG
   THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS MN AND NWRN WI...AS MLCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000
   J/KG. STRONG TO SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   30-40 KTS OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

   STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER SW ACROSS NEB...BUT
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MORE NEBULOUS HERE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
   IMPULSES AND AN UPSHEAR DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORM
   THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

   ..ROGERS/PETERS.. 05/23/2016

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