Fort Collins, CO...Boulder, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
60,614
364,211
Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...
5 %
224,075
12,792,542
Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Birmingham, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
26,088
157,060
Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
15 %
66,417
977,703
Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
5 %
96,963
4,990,073
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
SPC AC 271952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND/SHIFT CAT 1 AND 2 PROBABILITIES
EAST/NORTH GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE
DENVER CYCLONE AND CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THE AXIS OF
GREATEST SEVERE INTENSITY /AS HIGHLIGHTED BY LARGEST TORNADO AND
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES/ SHOULD LIE FROM THE NEB
PANHANDLE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS.
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO APPEARS ON-TRACK AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
...LOWER MO VALLEY...
ADDED SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/WIND WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA...AND ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS. OMAHA VWP DATA SAMPLED 30-35 KT WESTERLIES
AT 5-6 KM AGL WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED
STORMS AMID MODERATELY LARGE BUOYANCY.
...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
WILL MAINTAIN CAT 1 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WEAK DEEP
SHEAR SUGGESTS MINIMAL ORGANIZATION...WITH EMBEDDED WET MICROBURSTS
THE MAIN HAZARD.
..GRAMS.. 06/27/2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A VERY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
WY/NORTHEAST CO AND KS/NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD
OF THE FEATURE...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO
MAINTAIN LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN KS INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS AND STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
KS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TODAY OVER A
BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WHILE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE
DIFFUSE AND WEAK...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED AND BRIEFLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MATURE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA
TODAY. THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD MAXIMIZE DURING THE PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z