SPC AC 170059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN SD...FAR
   NRN NEB...FAR NW IA AND FAR SW MN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS
   EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
   CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ...NRN PLAINS...
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
   OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
   IN WRN SD IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THESE
   STORMS...AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY
   THE RAP FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ECNTRL SD. ALTHOUGH SOME
   CAPPING IS LIKELY PRESENT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS...THE STORMS IN WRN SD SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE EWD TO THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS EVENING AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD
   INTO CNTRL NEB AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD. THE SRN EXTENT OF
   CONVECTION WOULD BE IN WRN KS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   IS ALSO PRESENT.  INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
   PLAINS WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

   FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING IN SW MN
   AND FAR NE SD ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY
   INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING. THE ESRL HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
   WILL DEVELOP INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT WHICH WOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN MN. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS VARY
   SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. IT
   APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK AREA WOULD BE
   ACROSS SRN SD EXTENDING ESEWD INTO FAR NW IA WHERE COLD POOL
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

   ...GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
   A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
   STATES NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F.
   THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SCATTERED STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
   EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY UNDER 30 KT IN THE
   MARGINAL RISK AREA...THE INSTABILITY AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
   MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

   ..BROYLES.. 07/17/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z