Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
66,041
1,403,089
Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Mankato, MN...Owatonna, MN...Faribault, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
29,663
616,012
Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Mitchell, SD...Pierre, SD...Yankton, SD...
SPC AC 170059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN SD...FAR
NRN NEB...FAR NW IA AND FAR SW MN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS
EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
...NRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
IN WRN SD IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THESE
STORMS...AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY
THE RAP FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ECNTRL SD. ALTHOUGH SOME
CAPPING IS LIKELY PRESENT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...THE STORMS IN WRN SD SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE EWD TO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS EVENING AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD
INTO CNTRL NEB AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD. THE SRN EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WOULD BE IN WRN KS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
IS ALSO PRESENT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING IN SW MN
AND FAR NE SD ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY
INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING. THE ESRL HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT WHICH WOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN MN. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS VARY
SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK AREA WOULD BE
ACROSS SRN SD EXTENDING ESEWD INTO FAR NW IA WHERE COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
...GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F.
THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY UNDER 30 KT IN THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA...THE INSTABILITY AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
..BROYLES.. 07/17/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z