Aug 15, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 15 12:46:38 UTC 2016 (20160815 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160815 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160815 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 309,890 33,631,949 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160815 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 32,293 7,066,548 Indianapolis, IN...Cincinnati, OH...Dayton, OH...Bloomington, IN...Muncie, IN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160815 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 247,971 32,095,541 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160815 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 162,510 1,778,761 Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...
   SPC AC 151246

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED GENERALLY NEAR ST LOUIS EARLY THIS
   MORNING WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD AND LIKELY REACH LOWER MI LATER
   TONIGHT...WHILE TO ITS EAST...A ROUGHLY WEST/EAST-ORIENTED WARM
   FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

   ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...A NORTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING
   CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL YIELD MODERATELY ENLARGED
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS. PARTICULARLY ON THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION...A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR PRESUMING
   SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IL INTO INDIANA/PARTS OF OH IN
   VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW
   INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE OTHERWISE POSSIBLE.

   FARTHER EAST...SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT EXTENDS
   ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AWAY FROM THE
   FRONT...A VERY MOIST/HOT AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF VA
   AND NEARBY MD MAY YIELD PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   DOWNBURSTS.

   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   IN THE WAKE OF MCV MOVING FROM FAR EASTERN SD INTO MN...MULTIPLE
   WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS
   THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
   MULTIPLE SUB-REGIONAL CORRIDORS. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF
   ISOLATED SEVERE-CALIBER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN
   VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD-EXTENDING
   SURFACE TROUGH.

   FARTHER WEST...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG /EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT/...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS CENTRAL ND/NORTH-CENTRAL SD IN VICINITY OF A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH
   TROUGH COULD YIELD A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG
   HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
   AS FAR WEST AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY WITHIN A LIMITED MOISTURE
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GUYER/PICCA.. 08/15/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z