Aug 24, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 24 00:57:38 UTC 2016 (20160824 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160824 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160824 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 49,019 3,434,687 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
MARGINAL 359,698 17,810,357 Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160824 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 38,560 2,164,178 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Sioux City, IA...St. Joseph, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160824 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 47,291 3,064,715 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Lawrence, KS...
5 % 355,554 16,896,259 Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160824 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 47,525 3,187,260 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
5 % 295,078 16,435,622 Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 240057

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

   VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MO
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD
   INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS MIDDLE MISSOURI
   VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   WIDELY SPACED STORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NE KS
   AND ERN NEB/FAR W-CNTRL IA. HIGHEST COVERAGE IS AROUND OMAHA WHERE
   THE CURRENT ACTIVITY STILL HAS THE APPEARANCE OF BEING INITIATED BY
   WAA. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED TSTMS -- 00Z OAX SOUNDING
   SAMPLED MODERATE INSTABILITY /ABOVE 2000 J PER KG/ AND MINIMAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION -- AS WELL AS POTENTIAL COLD POOL AMALGAMATION
   AND MORE LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
   SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. RECENT CAMS
   AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MERITS KEEPING A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REGION.
   BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- BOTH SAMPLED
   WELL ON THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING -- ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF A LOW TORNADO
   THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO /THROUGH 02Z-03Z/. 

   ISOLATED SVR IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
   AND WRN OK BUT THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS DAYTIME
   HEATING WANES AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
   WILL ALSO EXISTS WITH THE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS NRN IA FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..MOSIER.. 08/24/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z