Sep 9, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 9 06:00:35 UTC 2016 (20160909 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160909 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160909 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 111,447 8,010,690 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...
MARGINAL 307,037 27,805,035 Indianapolis, IN...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160909 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 82,240 7,266,235 Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160909 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 110,954 7,998,835 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...
5 % 306,058 27,571,365 Indianapolis, IN...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160909 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 73,908 4,774,528 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Topeka, KS...
5 % 253,947 17,696,638 Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 090600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2016

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   AND MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
   PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL
   ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM
   THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
   AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
   SURGE SEWD AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...AND
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
   SAT MORNING. AN ANTECEDENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
   WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WI
   INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE AN
   ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD TO NEAR LAKE HURON. ELSEWHERE...A
   PAIR OF MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONES WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
   NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...WHILE A WEAK CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS NWD ALONG THE
   COAST OF SRN CA. 

   ...CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO WRN IA...
   PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND CNTRL
   PLAINS WILL BE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS MIDLEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AREA IS ALSO
   WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   OCCURRING AMIDST LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEPENING
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR WITH INITIAL
   DEVELOPMENT WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DMGG
   WIND GUSTS FROM SRN KS INTO WRN IA...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
   CONVECTION SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A S/SEWD MOVING MCS INTO OK/MO
   OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LATE FROM TX INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. 

   ...MO EWD ACROSS SRN IL AND IND...
   EARLY MORNING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF KS/MO
   WITHIN A WEAK WAA REGIME...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE
   MORNING. CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE
   POSITION OF AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
   PLACE ACROSS MO...WHICH MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP NEAR
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
   TO DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MO INTO SRN
   IL...WITH HAIL POTENTIAL MORE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
   MORE RAPID RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODESTLY
   STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO THE LATE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS INDIANA INTO SRN LOWER MI.

   ..ROGERS/GLEASON.. 09/09/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z