SPC AC 291711

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.  DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
   AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MULTIPLE ROUNDS/AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   ON WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWARD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT MID-MO VALLEY. A
   POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. INITIAL
   VORTICITY MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT NORTHEAST
   TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME
   TIME...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL TRANSPORT RICHER GULF
   MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER TX COAST/SABINE VALLEY THROUGH
   PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY
   REGION. A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEB WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TRACK
   EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHERN KS WITH A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
   EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KS/OK INTO CENTRAL TX. 

   ...EASTERN OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY --
   WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
   THIS REGION DURING THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALREADY BE
   ONGOING 12Z/WED ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX INTO SW MO. WEAK TO MODERATE
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP RESIDUAL EML...AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEMI ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.
   THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PRODUCE SPORADIC
   SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
   OZARKS AND LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS -- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING...

   THE BREADTH OF MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW THINGS
   EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK/TX...AND
   GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC AND
   SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADEQUATE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN
   OK/TX INTO WESTERN AR/LA IS EXPECTED. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE
   EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TO ROUGHLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL KS
   THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO TX...AND AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER KS AND THE MID-MO
   VALLEY...WEAKENING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERLY
   LLJ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND STRONGER
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR
   MORE SUBTLE FORCING. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF
   EASTERN NEB/KS INTO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO. 

   THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE MIN IN ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   KS/NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO...AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
   AR/LA. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL HAZARD
   TYPES BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
   THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
   TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

   GIVEN DISPARITY AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND THE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...IN ADDITION TO
   ADDED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION...NO UPGRADES WILL BE
   MADE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. 

   ...ARKLAMISS REGION -- OVERNIGHT...

   STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AS THEY TRACK
   EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   BECOME FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION. STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..LEITMAN.. 03/29/2016

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