May 9, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 9 05:47:43 UTC 2016 (20160509 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160509 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160509 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 100,642 9,928,466 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...
MARGINAL 273,258 22,903,284 Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160509 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 100,613 9,926,425 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...
5 % 273,100 22,905,307 Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...
   SPC AC 090547

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
   AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF
   SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK
   PLATEAU...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND AROUND THE HILL COUNTRY OF
   TEXAS.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
   TROUGHING NOW EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST OFF THE WESTERN GULF
   OF MEXICO INTO AND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
   PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE
   SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.
    
   IN ADDITION TO ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
   WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AIDED BY A MODEST
   LINGERING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  THIS LOW-LEVEL JET
   /AROUND 30 KT AT 850 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FROM PORTIONS
   OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAY TUESDAY...AS REMNANT UPPER TROUGHING TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
   OHIO VALLEY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
   FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS LATTER
   DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT PIECE-MEAL...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
   FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTH
   DAKOTA INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A
   SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE GRADUALLY DIGS ACROSS THE
   EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND WYOMING/COLORADO ROCKIES.

   CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF THE STRONG HIGH-LEVEL JET NOW PROPAGATING
   ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS IS EXPECTED.  A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
   REGION AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...WITH
   THE APPROACH OF THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES IMPULSE...A MODEST /30-40+
   KT AT 850 MB/ LOW-LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...GENERALLY BENEATH A
   PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.

   ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...
   WEAKENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...COUPLED WITH INSOLATION AND LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC
   ZONE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD PROVIDE THE
   FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY
   REMNANT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
   OF UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  

   GIVEN DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUING INFLUX OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SHEAR/MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
   BELT OF 30-40 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...THE
   ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE
   EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
   POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

   ...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT EDWARDS PLATEAU...
   MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS MAY BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHY...AND
   PERHAPS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WITHIN THE
   WEAKENING HIGH-LEVEL JET.  EVEN WITH RATHER WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN AROUND 50+ KT ACROSS THE
   REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  WITH
   HEATING...LARGE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL
   AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGHING
   PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE
   TO HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
   FOCUSED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLUME OF WARMER ELEVATED
   MIXED-LAYER AIR...WHICH MAY TEND TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE RISK FOR LOCALLY
   STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN
   INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  AFTER DARK...EASTWARD
   TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
   UNCLEAR DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED.

   ..KERR.. 05/09/2016

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