SPC AC 021947

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
   0147 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2017

   Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
   U.S., today through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   Much of the nation is now under the influence of an amplified belt
   of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. 
   Within this regime, large-scale ridging is forecast to continue
   progressing inland of the Canadian and northern U.S. Pacific coast,
   through the Canadian Prairies, northern U.S Rockies and Plains. 
   There may be some further amplification of large-scale troughing
   extending downstream, through the western Atlantic, mainly near the
   south Atlantic coast.

   With deep layer mean flow becoming west/northwesterly across much of
   the nation, generally stable conditions now prevail.  This is
   expected to result in low to negligible risk for thunderstorm
   activity today through tonight, particularly to the north of a
   significant surface cold front which has already cleared all but
   portions of northern Florida and the Florida Peninsula.  With the
   possible exception of southeast and east central Florida coastal
   areas, generally weak low-level convergence is also expected to
   minimize convective potential along and south of the front.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   Given the light nature of the south/southwesterly pre-frontal
   low-level flow, sea-breeze convergence may become focused near or
   just inland of southeast and east central coastal areas by late this
   afternoon.  Coupled with lower/mid tropospheric moistening, in a
   narrow plume emanating from the Florida Straits/Caribbean, the
   environment may become conducive to at least widely scattered storm
   development, despite the possible lingering presence of relatively
   warm and capping mid-level air.  

   Latest visible satellite imagery shows moderate cumulus development
   over Southeastern Florida.  Latest model guidance is suggestive that
   convection could intensify into isolated thunderstorms in areas of
   enhanced sea-breeze convergence.  These may become focused across
   northern portions of the Miami metropolitan area, and the
   intersection of the southward advancing front, between Melbourne and
   Vero Beach.  Some upscale growth and consolidation of this activity
   may eventually occur offshore later tonight.

   ..15_ows.. 03/02/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z