SPC AC 101947

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from
   Texas eastward to the southeast United States. However, organized
   severe weather is not expected.

   No appreciable change was made to the previous forecast.

   ..Smith.. 03/10/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A western U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough pattern aloft will prevail
   over the CONUS today, though some deamplification of the flow field
   is expected as short-wave troughing -- rotating around the southern
   side of an eastern Canada vortex -- shifts across the eastern states
   through the first half of the period.

   As this short-wave trough advances cyclonically eastward, an
   associated surface cold front -- trailing from a
   northeastward-moving low over the western Atlantic -- will continue
   to shift eastward away from the Atlantic coast, and southward across
   the Gulf coastal region and the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Farther
   west, this front should become quasi-stationary and aligned
   west-to-east across central Texas through the end of the period.

   ...Southern Plains eastward into the Southeast...
   With convection now largely off the southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast,
   thunder risk has largely ended.  One exception may be across parts
   of northeast Florida, where a few showers or an afternoon
   thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

   Farther west, convection continues shifting southward toward/off the
   central Gulf coastal areas, though a few thunderstorms persist
   across parts of southern Mississippi/Louisiana.  More widespread
   storms are ongoing from south Texas east into the western Gulf, and
   an increase in thunderstorms across Texas is expected today as the
   cold front drifts southward and eventually stalls.  Despite ample
   CAPE, very weak flow aloft should hinder potential for updraft
   organization, and thus any severe risk would likely be
   brief/marginal with a stronger pulse-type storm.

   Finally, low-level warm advection is forecast to increase tonight
   across the southern Plains and vicinity, north of the aforementioned
   surface front.  However, meager instability currently anticipated
   suggests no more than a very isolated lightning strikes within
   showery/elevated convection -- likely remaining insufficient to
   warrant continuation of a 10% thunder area north of the Red River.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z