Apr 3, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 3 00:59:01 UTC 2017 (20170403 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170403 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20170403 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 48,222 4,429,236 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
SLIGHT 32,114 1,816,706 Tuscaloosa, AL...Gulfport, MS...Lake Charles, LA...Biloxi, MS...Tupelo, MS...
MARGINAL 17,302 1,502,415 Mobile, AL...Port Arthur, TX...Florence, AL...Bessemer, AL...Prichard, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170403 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 11,932 801,595 Hattiesburg, MS...Laurel, MS...Hammond, LA...Baker, LA...Bogalusa, LA...
10 % 34,283 3,881,507 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
5 % 29,872 1,509,090 Gulfport, MS...Lake Charles, LA...Biloxi, MS...Meridian, MS...Marrero, LA...
2 % 17,363 1,112,523 Mobile, AL...Tuscaloosa, AL...Prichard, AL...Pascagoula, MS...Gautier, MS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170403 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
45 % 22,172 1,596,954 Jackson, MS...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Clinton, MS...Pearl, MS...
30 % 24,351 2,562,735 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Kenner, LA...
15 % 30,682 2,050,805 Tuscaloosa, AL...Gulfport, MS...Lake Charles, LA...Biloxi, MS...Tupelo, MS...
5 % 20,414 1,568,408 Mobile, AL...Port Arthur, TX...Florence, AL...Bessemer, AL...Prichard, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170403 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 11,932 805,517 Hattiesburg, MS...Laurel, MS...Hammond, LA...Baker, LA...Bogalusa, LA...
5 % 43,361 4,328,053 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
   SPC AC 030059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

   Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE
   PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
   LOUISIANA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible tonight over the
   southeastern half of Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and western
   Alabama.  Widespread damaging winds are possible, including the risk
   for a strong tornado or two during the overnight across parts of
   southeastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi.

   ...Central Gulf Coast states...
   An extensive squall line from the lower Sabine Valley northeastward
   into northern Mississippi will serve as the western delimiter for
   strong/severe thunderstorms tonight.  A very moisture-rich air mass
   south of a warm front over southern MS will gradually advance
   northward into central MS tonight and southwestern AL.  Steep
   700-500 mb lapse rates (7 degrees C/km) sampled in the warm sector
   from 00z LCH and LIX raobs are contributing to moderate buoyancy
   (2500 J/kg MLCAPE).  As the mid-level trough over TX pivots
   northeast towards the Ozarks tonight, the strong low-level and
   deep-layer shear profiles will remain in place across the warm
   sector.  Isolated cells may continue to develop ahead of the squall
   line and pose a risk for large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado
   (possibly strong/damaging) given the large looping hodographs
   sampled by area 88D VAD winds.  Short-term models suggest an
   acceleration of the southern portion of the squall line across LA
   and MS tonight.  Widespread damaging winds are possible with the
   squall line, especially near large embedded cores where an embedded
   supercell tornado and/or mesovortex-tornado risk may develop.  

   Farther east, the 00z BMX raob north of the warm front was
   dry/stable.  Yet, strong low-level flow with accompanying moisture
   will gradually destabilize the eastern parts of MS into AL during
   the overnight.  Models suggest the pre-frontal squall line will move
   into this area during the 06-12z period.  Isolated damaging winds
   will be the primary threat but a tornado is possible farther south
   in closer proximity to the richer moisture.

   ..Smith.. 04/03/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z