Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
105,148
7,205,699
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
5 %
177,446
10,093,708
Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Rockford, IL...Green Bay, WI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...
SPC AC 151254
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging winds are expected this afternoon and evening from portions
of the central and southern High Plains to the Upper Mississippi
River Valley.
...Eastern KS to Upper Mississippi River Valley...
An east/northeastward-moving MCV across southern MN/northern IA and
a broader warm moist conveyor should continue to lead to scattered
showers/thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi
River Valley today. This (and related cloud cover) effectively casts
some uncertainty regarding the north-northeastward extent of the
main severe risk (especially into WI) later today as the boundary
layer otherwise continues to modestly moisten and destabilize
through mid/late afternoon ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold
front. More consequential destabilization is expected this afternoon
just ahead of the front across KS into northern MO/southern IA.
Multiple sub-regional corridors of thunderstorms should develop and
intensify by late afternoon from eastern KS/northern MO into IA/WI.
Hail will initially be possible, but strengthening largely
unidirectional wind profiles should support the evolution of mostly
linear bands/embedded bows by evening, although a brief supercell
and/or QLCS-related tornado risk could also exist late this
afternoon and evening mainly from parts of IA into WI.
...South-central/southern High Plains...
Ample heating/mixing and sufficient near-boundary convergence should
yield isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon/early
evening across the TX/OK panhandles and southwest KS/far western OK
vicinities near a surface low/dryline and southward-sagging
front-related triple point. Very steep lapse rates in conjunction
with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints will yield as much
as 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by peak heating. In the presence of
30-35 kt of effective shear, this will support supercells capable of
very large hail.
Other more isolated severe thunderstorms may form late this
afternoon/early evening as far southwest as the Trans-Pecos vicinity
of southwest TX. Additionally, a few other severe thunderstorms
capable of hail could materialize this evening across the
south-central High Plains near and north of the southward-sagging
front within a strongly sheared post-frontal environment.
..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/15/2017
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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