Colorado Springs, CO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Midland, TX...Centennial, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 091626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Tue May 09 2017
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO KANSAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes are expected from eastern New Mexico and west Texas
into eastern Colorado through tonight.
...Eastern NM/CO into western KS/TX...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. It
appears two regimes of severe weather will occur today. The first
will be associated with thunderstorms that form over/near the
mountains of north-central NM into southeast CO. Steep mid level
lapse rates and continued easterly/upslope flow will result in
scattered storms beginning early this afternoon. These storms will
likely pose a risk of large hail (possibly very large hail) as they
build northeastward into northeast NM and eastern CO. An isolated
tornado or two is also possible with the more intense storms in this
regime today. The northern extent of the severe risk will likely be
delimited by the Denver convergence zone. These storms may spread
into western KS and the northern TX Panhandle this evening before
weakening.
Later this evening, 12Z guidance is in good agreement that a second
round of severe storms will develop over parts of southeast NM and
southwest TX. These storms are more likely to maintain discrete
character, with supercells likely. The storms will track
northeastward across eastern NM and into parts of west TX
around/after dark posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes.
..Hart/Cohen.. 05/09/2017
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