May 9, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 9 16:26:58 UTC 2017 (20170509 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170509 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170509 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 141,594 3,374,814 Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...
MARGINAL 204,574 5,246,197 Denver, CO...Albuquerque, NM...Lincoln, NE...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170509 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 64,657 725,753 Lubbock, TX...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Plainview, TX...Hereford, TX...
2 % 78,047 2,609,129 Colorado Springs, CO...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Midland, TX...Centennial, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170509 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 69,963 1,053,584 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Hobbs, NM...Plainview, TX...
5 % 246,268 4,819,861 Albuquerque, NM...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...Highlands Ranch, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170509 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 57,931 706,145 Lubbock, TX...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Plainview, TX...Hereford, TX...
15 % 141,987 3,253,752 Colorado Springs, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Midland, TX...
5 % 204,634 5,375,788 Denver, CO...Albuquerque, NM...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...Lakewood, CO...
   SPC AC 091626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Tue May 09 2017

   Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN
   COLORADO...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK...FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO KANSAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and
   a few tornadoes are expected from eastern New Mexico and west Texas
   into eastern Colorado through tonight.

   ...Eastern NM/CO into western KS/TX...
   Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  It
   appears two regimes of severe weather will occur today.  The first
   will be associated with thunderstorms that form over/near the
   mountains of north-central NM into southeast CO.  Steep mid level
   lapse rates and continued easterly/upslope flow will result in
   scattered storms beginning early this afternoon.  These storms will
   likely pose a risk of large hail (possibly very large hail) as they
   build northeastward into northeast NM and eastern CO.  An isolated
   tornado or two is also possible with the more intense storms in this
   regime today.  The northern extent of the severe risk will likely be
   delimited by the Denver convergence zone.  These storms may spread
   into western KS and the northern TX Panhandle this evening before
   weakening.

   Later this evening, 12Z guidance is in good agreement that a second
   round of severe storms will develop over parts of southeast NM and
   southwest TX.  These storms are more likely to maintain discrete
   character, with supercells likely.  The storms will track
   northeastward across eastern NM and into parts of west TX
   around/after dark posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds,
   and a few tornadoes.

   ..Hart/Cohen.. 05/09/2017

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