Jun 11, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 11 12:49:24 UTC 2017 (20170611 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170611 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170611 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 51,866 5,426,908 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Green Bay, WI...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
SLIGHT 71,588 2,646,039 Fort Collins, CO...Rochester, MN...Greeley, CO...Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...
MARGINAL 291,528 7,896,177 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170611 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 27,466 4,078,780 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
2 % 58,948 3,202,256 Fort Collins, CO...Green Bay, WI...Rochester, MN...Greeley, CO...Appleton, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170611 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
45 % 14,074 3,733,236 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
30 % 38,001 1,771,105 Green Bay, WI...Rochester, MN...St. Cloud, MN...Wausau, WI...Mankato, MN...
15 % 62,845 2,021,364 Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...La Crosse, WI...Fond du Lac, WI...Manitowoc, WI...
5 % 299,371 8,568,596 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Aurora, CO...Madison, WI...Lakewood, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170611 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 105,406 7,596,887 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Fort Collins, CO...Green Bay, WI...Rochester, MN...
5 % 223,465 7,800,257 Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Aurora, CO...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 111249

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM EAST
   CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER
   MICHIGAN...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED RISK AREA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR A
   SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with a substantial damaging-wind threat are expected
   to persist today across east central Minnesota into northern
   Wisconsin and a small part of southern Upper Michigan.  Isolated
   strong-severe storms will also be possible across parts of southeast
   Wyoming/northern Colorado, and the northern Great Basin.

   ...MN/WI today...
   An ongoing MCS in southwestern MN will likely persist through the
   day while moving east-northeastward along a warm front across
   southern MN to central WI.  The MCS formed in a zone of strong warm
   advection on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet, and should continue
   to move along the buoyancy gradient (north edge of steep midlevel
   lapse rates and boundary layer dewpoints 67-70 F).  MUCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg, effective bulk shear near 50 kt, and strong
   downdraft potential will aid in a continued substantial risk for
   damaging winds today across east central MN into northern WI. 
   Isolated large hail will also be possible with the strongest storms,
   as well as a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations.

   Additional strong-severe thunderstorm development may occur this
   afternoon along the outflow-reinforced front across MN/WI, given
   lingering strong buoyancy south of the morning MCS track.

   ...The Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO this evening...
   An increasingly moist upslope/post-frontal flow regime will become
   established by this afternoon across southeast WY and northeast CO. 
   The more probable area for isolated storm development will be near
   the east slope of the Laramie Range southward into northern CO.  If
   storms do manage to form, the near-storm environment could support
   supercells with isolated large hail.

   ...Northern NV/southern ID into western WY this afternoon...
   A closed midlevel low over northern CA will move slowly eastward to
   northern NV by tonight.  Downstream from the low, upper divergence
   in the exit region of the cyclonically curved jet will combine with
   daytime heating to support at least widely scattered thunderstorm
   development.  Low-level moisture and buoyancy will remain limited,
   though steep low-level lapse rates and substantial deep-layer
   southerly shear could support isolated storms with gusty outflow
   winds.

   ..Thompson.. 06/11/2017

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