SPC AC 231640

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TN VALLEY
   TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   NM/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO APPALACHIANS/NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon
   into evening from the Tennessee Valley toward parts of the
   Appalachians. A few severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail
   will also be possible across parts of the Northeast States and
   southern Plains.

   ...TN Valley vicinity...
   The remnants of Cindy will continue to spread east-northeastward
   through the afternoon and evening, with a corridor of low/mid-level
   winds preceding these remnants. A moist and increasingly uninhibited
   boundary layer this afternoon should allow for the intensification
   of a mixed mode of storms, including bands/clusters and the
   possibility of some cluster-preceding semi-discrete supercells.
   Given the magnitude of the low-level shear, especially from northern
   AL into middle/eastern TN and eastern KY, the potential will exist
   for a few tornadoes aside from some wind damage potential. Reference
   Mesoscale Discussion 1130 for additional short-term details.

   ...Middle/upper OH River Valley to Delmarva/Mid-Atlantic...
   As moisture continues to increase into the region, it appears that
   pockets of locally stronger heating will occur today ahead, and on
   the southern fringes, of upstream precipitation/thicker cloud cover.
   A steadily strengthening wind field will overspread the region
   through the afternoon and evening, with increasingly favorable wind
   profiles for organized storms including a few supercells/bows.
   Damaging winds should be the primary risk, but some hail and/or a
   tornado are possible as well.

   ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South...
   Steep lapse rates and diabatic warming of the boundary layer will
   promote moderate instability in this region. Storms will likely
   develop along the south/southeastward-advancing cold front as well
   as over the higher terrain over NM/west TX. Additionally, ongoing
   storms across southwest MO may gradually increase in
   coverage/intensity as they progress southeastward into AR. The warm
   sector resides well south of the stronger winds aloft, but vertical
   shear will be supportive of multicells capable of producing a few
   strong to damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail this
   afternoon into evening.

   ...Northern NY/New England...
   At least a few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this
   afternoon across northeast NY into northern New England.

   ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/23/2017

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