Jul 7, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 7 16:19:10 UTC 2017 (20170707 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170707 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170707 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 37,574 9,073,915 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Dayton, OH...Bloomington, IN...
SLIGHT 84,255 12,397,092 Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...Akron, OH...
MARGINAL 610,058 89,005,079 Chicago, IL...Philadelphia, PA...Detroit, MI...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170707 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 88,426 18,901,560 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170707 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 37,574 9,073,915 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Dayton, OH...Bloomington, IN...
15 % 79,187 11,762,124 Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...Akron, OH...Evansville, IN...
5 % 598,294 88,908,301 Chicago, IL...Philadelphia, PA...Detroit, MI...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170707 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 76,576 14,886,197 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...
5 % 437,058 51,627,372 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Cleveland, OH...
   SPC AC 071619

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
   OH/IN/KY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST/OH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...WI...AND NORTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms producing scattered swaths of damaging winds and large
   hail are likely over the Midwest centered on portions of Indiana and
   Ohio this afternoon.

   ...Midwest...
   Strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of northern IN and
   northwest OH. Robust diabatic heating is underway to the south of
   this activity, including in the wake of weak outflow near the upper
   OH River associated with decaying convection approaching the
   northern/central Appalachians. With widespread lower 70s surface dew
   points overlapping the eastern periphery of steep mid-level lapse
   rates around 7 degree C/km from 700-500 mb as sampled by 12Z
   Davenport and Lincoln RAOBs, large buoyancy will likely develop at
   peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg across IL/IN into
   southwest OH.

   While stronger mid-level northwesterlies associated with a shortwave
   trough near the MN/ON border will lag to the northwest of the
   Midwest storms, moderate west-northwesterlies will be sufficient for
   organized structures, including embedded supercells and bowing line
   segments. Multiple MCSs appear probable with the ongoing activity
   spreading southeast across OH, with additional storms likely forming
   westward in IN near the intersection of early-day outflow and a
   southeastward-progressing cold front. Given the dominant
   linear/cluster modes, damaging winds appear to be the primary
   hazard, with severe hail a secondary threat.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Between a southeast Canada trough and Great Basin anticyclone,
   modest mid-level northwesterlies will prevail, with a couple
   embedded disturbances topping the ridge over the northern Rockies.
   Isolated storms will develop over the Rockies and Black Hills by
   late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-35 kt may yield a few
   organized storms as they spread onto the adjacent plains. Sporadic
   occurrences of hail and wind are probable, but confidence is low in
   identifying a more concentrated area of storm development for a
   Slight risk this outlook.

   ...Elsewhere...
   Generally isolated strong to severe storms mainly with damaging wind
   and some hail will be possible across the Northeast, Ozark Plateau,
   Carolinas, and Wisconsin.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/07/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z