Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
25,537
223,199
Rapid City, SD...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...Belle Fourche, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
30,492
474,968
Amarillo, TX...Rapid City, SD...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...Canyon, TX...
SPC AC 150050
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK AREA AND COVERING A SLIGHTLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will continue this evening across
parts of the southern High Plains, as well as parts of the northern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
A few storms have evolved this afternoon over northeast New Mexico,
with the strongest storm now in the process of expanding into
Hartley County in the Texas Panhandle. A small mesolow is evident
with this storm, and with several of the latest CAM runs still
suggesting upscale growth of northeast New Mexico convection into an
east-southeastward-moving MCS, potential for a somewhat more
widespread severe risk evolving across the Texas Panhandle vicinity
still appears to exist. As such, will maintain slight risk area to
cover this potential over the next 3-4 hours.
...Northern High Plains...
Isolated strong/severe storms continue across parts of eastern
Wyoming an eastward into western South Dakota and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Recently, coverage has increased in the vicinity of the
Black Hills, where the upslope component of easterly low-level flow
is enhancing ascent.
With only a narrow northwest-to-southeast axis of instability
extending into western South Dakota, severe risk will likely remain
confined to a rather small area. Farther south however, with the
zone of CAPE broadening across western Nebraska, some risk for a
southeast-moving MCS to shift off the higher terrain and linger
through the evening is evident. Given the favorability of the
environment, and resulting organization within the evolving Black
Hills storms, introduction of a small SLGT risk area to highlight
locally greater severe risk over the next few hours will be included
in this forecast update.
..Goss.. 08/15/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z