SPC AC 310540

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for a few tornadoes will persist today from the central
   Gulf Coast states to the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas Piedmont in
   association with the remnants of Harvey.

   ...Synopsis...

   Primary feature of interest today will be the remnants of Harvey.
   This system has been downgraded to a tropical depression by the
   National Hurricane Center and is forecast to continue a slow
   northeast track into northern MS by late this afternoon, then into
   middle TN by the end of this period. A warm front extending east
   from the center will advance northward, reaching the TN Valley this
   evening.

   ...Portions of Gulf Coast States into the Tennessee Valley and
   western Carolinas...

   Satellite imagery indicates Harvey continues to entrain middle to
   high-level dry air as it transitions to a hybrid subtropical system.
   This process will increase potential for partial clearing and
   corridors of solar heating between convergence bands during the day.
   Storms will likely redevelop within the bands as the boundary layer
   destabilizes. Greatest tornado threat should occur as north-moving
   storms interact with the warm front and where 0-1 km storm-relative
   helicity will be maximized in proximity to the low-level jet from
   early afternoon into the evening.

   ..Dial/Marsh.. 08/31/2017

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