Sep 10, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 10 16:05:00 UTC 2017 (20170910 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170910 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170910 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 6,066 2,108,419 Port St. Lucie, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Deltona, FL...Melbourne, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...
SLIGHT 29,883 9,747,487 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Gainesville, FL...
MARGINAL 15,466 6,002,736 Miami, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170910 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 6,352 2,233,951 Port St. Lucie, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Deltona, FL...Melbourne, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...
5 % 29,072 9,372,751 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Gainesville, FL...
2 % 16,309 6,390,664 Miami, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170910 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 51,286 17,783,451 Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170910 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101605

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

   Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The tornado risk associated with Hurricane Irma will affect much of
   the Florida Peninsula today and tonight.

   ...FL...
   Local VAD profiles show intense low-level vertical shear across the
   central and southern FL peninsula, in association with Hurricane
   Irma.  These impressive shear profiles will expand northward through
   the day.  Meanwhile, veering winds south of the center will slowly
   diminish the risk of tornadoes over south FL.  

   12z CAM solutions continue to indicate a corridor of greater
   potential for semi-discrete convection and an associated threat of
   tornadoes across east-central FL this afternoon and evening.  Will
   therefore maintain the ongoing ENH risk in that area.  

   A weak surface front extending from the FL panhandle into GA will
   likely limit the northwest extent of tornado risk, due to weaker
   instability in this region.  However, strengthening southeasterly
   low level winds should result in some northward movement of the
   boundary later today.

   ..Hart/Jirak.. 09/10/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z