Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 101942
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA
NORTHWARD ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
The tornado risk associated with Hurricane Irma will affect much of
the Florida Peninsula today and tonight.
Little change was made to the previous outlook except to reduce
severe probabilities over far southern Florida behind the latitude
of the eye of Irma. A very moist and sufficiently unstable air mass
combined with extreme shear will maintain a possibility of small,
fast-moving supercells capable of tornadoes.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/
Local VAD profiles show intense low-level vertical shear across the
central and southern FL peninsula, in association with Hurricane
Irma. These impressive shear profiles will expand northward through
the day. Meanwhile, veering winds south of the center will slowly
diminish the risk of tornadoes over south FL.
12z CAM solutions continue to indicate a corridor of greater
potential for semi-discrete convection and an associated threat of
tornadoes across east-central FL this afternoon and evening. Will
therefore maintain the ongoing ENH risk in that area.
A weak surface front extending from the FL panhandle into GA will
likely limit the northwest extent of tornado risk, due to weaker
instability in this region. However, strengthening southeasterly
low level winds should result in some northward movement of the
boundary later today.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z