Sep 10, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 10 19:42:57 UTC 2017 (20170910 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170910 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170910 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 6,422 2,235,683 Port St. Lucie, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Deltona, FL...Melbourne, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...
SLIGHT 29,527 9,620,224 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Gainesville, FL...
MARGINAL 14,060 5,361,837 Miami, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170910 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 6,650 2,367,754 Port St. Lucie, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Deltona, FL...Melbourne, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...
5 % 28,774 9,238,948 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Gainesville, FL...
2 % 15,154 5,972,246 Miami, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170910 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 49,940 17,364,677 Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170910 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
   FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA
   NORTHWARD ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The tornado risk associated with Hurricane Irma will affect much of
   the Florida Peninsula today and tonight.

   ...Florida...
   Little change was made to the previous outlook except to reduce
   severe probabilities over far southern Florida behind the latitude
   of the eye of Irma. A very moist and sufficiently unstable air mass
   combined with extreme shear will maintain a possibility of small,
   fast-moving supercells capable of tornadoes.

   ..Jewell.. 09/10/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017/

   ...FL...
   Local VAD profiles show intense low-level vertical shear across the
   central and southern FL peninsula, in association with Hurricane
   Irma.  These impressive shear profiles will expand northward through
   the day.  Meanwhile, veering winds south of the center will slowly
   diminish the risk of tornadoes over south FL.  

   12z CAM solutions continue to indicate a corridor of greater
   potential for semi-discrete convection and an associated threat of
   tornadoes across east-central FL this afternoon and evening.  Will
   therefore maintain the ongoing ENH risk in that area.  

   A weak surface front extending from the FL panhandle into GA will
   likely limit the northwest extent of tornado risk, due to weaker
   instability in this region.  However, strengthening southeasterly
   low level winds should result in some northward movement of the
   boundary later today.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z