Oct 2, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 2 19:52:24 UTC 2017 (20171002 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171002 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171002 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 26,117 236,986 Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Lexington, NE...
MARGINAL 128,720 6,636,452 Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171002 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 9,149 77,104 Garden City, KS...
2 % 44,953 1,725,946 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Grand Island, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171002 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 102,838 4,980,534 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171002 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 26,335 237,649 Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Lexington, NE...
5 % 108,806 3,531,894 Minneapolis, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
   SPC AC 021952

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

   Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
   KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several episodes of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from
   afternoon at least into late evening, in a corridor from the central
   Great Plains to the Upper Midwest. The greatest potential for
   organized severe weather appears to be over parts of western Kansas
   into south-central Nebraska.

   ...Western Kansas...
   The tornado probabilities across southwest Kansas have been
   increased for a possible supercell or two near or just ahead of the
   boundary. Heating continues in this area, with CU field becoming
   better established. It is unclear whether convergence/lift will be
   sufficient to overcome the capping inversion ahead of the front.
   However, given a strengthening low-level jet later today with
   rapidly enlarging hodographs, a conditional threat of tornadoes
   exists.

   ..Jewell.. 10/02/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017/

   ...Central Plains...
   Surface cyclogenesis will continue to occur across southeast CO
   today, with some possible northward shift of the currently stalled
   southwest/northeast-oriented front across the central High Plains.
   As forcing for ascent related to an upstream trough over the central
   Rockies nears the region later today, the most likely scenario is
   for storms to increase along/north of the surface front late this
   afternoon and more so this evening from northeast CO/northwest KS
   into NE with hail/wind possible. 

   There is also at least a conditional risk for surface-based storms
   to develop late this afternoon/early evening farther south
   near/south of the surface triple point including locales such as
   west-central/southwest KS and possibly even into the OK/TX
   Panhandles. If such development occurs, a rather favorable parameter
   space would support supercells capable of large hail, locally
   damaging winds and at least some tornado potential.

   ...Northern/Eastern NE to the Upper Midwest...
   Persistent cloud cover along with some scattered showers/few
   thunderstorms (mainly across IA) are prevalent at late morning in
   areas near/east of a front extending from western MN
   south-southwestward into eastern NE. Gradual large-scale height
   rises are also expected across the region through the diurnal
   heating cycle. These influences cast uncertainty regarding the
   likelihood/extent of today's severe risk, although at least a
   conditional potential will exist for storm intensification near the
   front later this afternoon into evening as inhibition diurnally
   weakens and low-level moisture continues to increase into the
   region. An increasingly strong wind field could support at least
   some spatiotemporal window for a few near-surface-based supercells
   provided sufficient destabilization.

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