Oct 3, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 3 00:57:20 UTC 2017 (20171003 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171003 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171003 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 23,396 358,242 Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Hastings, NE...Columbus, NE...
MARGINAL 91,231 5,412,870 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171003 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 10,644 44,309 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 % 18,504 212,200 Garden City, KS...Hastings, NE...Hays, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171003 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 65,427 5,209,727 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171003 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 22,897 336,416 Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Hastings, NE...Columbus, NE...
5 % 91,626 5,435,569 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...
   SPC AC 030057

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

   Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   WESTERN/NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening
   over parts of western/northern Kansas into south-central Nebraska. 
   Other very isolated strong storms will be possible into parts of
   Iowa and southern Minnesota.

   ...KS/NE...
   Scattered severe storms, including a few strong supercells, are
   affecting western and northern KS and south-central NE this evening.
   These storms have formed in vicinity of a retreating surface
   boundary, with the storms nearest the boundary posing some risk of
   large hail and a few tornadoes.  Vertical shear profiles are quite
   strong in this region, with effective helicity values of 300-500
   m2/s2 and favorable deep layer shear to maintain semi-discrete storm
   modes for a few more hours before strengthening inhibition and
   weakening CAPE reduce the threat.  

   ...CO into NE...
   A zone of lift will also result in scattered thunderstorms this
   evening from northeast CO into central NE.  These storms will be
   elevated, but may pose a risk of hail for a few hours before
   congealing into more widespread shower/thunderstorm activity.

   ..Hart.. 10/03/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z