Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161933
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Showers and thunderstorms will persist from the coastal Carolinas
through Florida this afternoon into the evening. No severe weather
is expected.
...Discussion...
The previous forecast remains on track with only a small adjustment
necessary.
..Dial.. 10/16/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/
A surface cold front is moving southeastward across the Carolinas
into GA/FL, with the potential of scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Relatively poor lapse rates and weak
effective shear suggest that storms will be disorganized, with
minimal severe threat.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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