Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 300445
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Desert Southwest Monday night. A couple thunderstorms will also be
possible along the Texas Gulf Coast towards daybreak Tuesday.
...Desert Southwest...
A compact mid/upper shortwave trough will advance eastward along the
Mexican border today, likely reaching the Arizona/New Mexico border
Monday night. Ahead of this impulse, ascent should cool/moisten the
700-500mb layer sufficiently for the development of weak buoyancy.
Forecast soundings indicate an adequate depth for charge separation,
suggesting isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern
Arizona to far western Texas during the overnight hours.
...Texas Gulf Coast...
Along the western periphery of a surface ridge centered over the
northern Gulf, light southerly flow will bring increasing low-level
moisture to the western Gulf Coast today. Late Monday night, a weak
mid-level impulse (currently observed over northern Mexico in
water-vapor imagery) will pivot across south Texas. The combination
of weak large-scale ascent from this impulse and low-level
confluence within a pre-frontal warm-advection regime may be
sufficient for a few thunderstorms towards daybreak Tuesday.
..Picca/Gleason.. 10/30/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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