Nov 7, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 7 19:48:47 UTC 2017 (20171107 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171107 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171107 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171107 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171107 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171107 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071948

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2017

   Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms remain possible from Louisiana to the coastal
   Carolinas through this evening.

   ...Discussion...
   Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing general thunder
   area. While a few thunderstorms over the southern Appalachians
   intensified briefly earlier today, various radar and lightning
   fields have suggested an overall weakening trend over the last
   several hours. Ahead of the surface front, updraft sustenance should
   continue to struggle, owing to veered flow (and related weak
   convergence) and dry air around 700 mb.

   ..Picca.. 11/07/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017/

   ...Southeast states...
   A band of showers and thunderstorms is sagging slowly southward into
   parts of AL/GA/SC.  Isolated cells along this band have produced
   locally gusty/damaging winds in the past couple hours.  The
   environment downstream of this activity remains similarly favorable
   for gusty winds.  However, trends in radar/lightning/satellite data
   and 12z CAM guidance provides little confidence that convective
   intensity will rise to severe levels this afternoon.  Wind gusts are
   expected to remain below 50 knots, and therefore will maintain the
   ongoing forecast of less than 5% severe probabilities.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z