Nov 9, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 9 19:40:19 UTC 2017 (20171109 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171109 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171109 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171109 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171109 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171109 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091940

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2017

   Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   through the remainder of today and tonight.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...

   ...Southern Atlantic coastal areas...
   Forcing for ascent associated with an eastward progressing mid-level
   short wave trough could still provide support for the development of
   a couple of thunderstorms during the next few hours, mainly in the
   vicinity of the stalled/slow moving frontal zone near/west through
   north of the Jacksonville metropolitan area.  Inland of the coast
   areas, this potential currently appears likely to diminish by around
   00-01Z.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   One significant impulse within deamplifying larger-scale troughing
   appears likely to remain offshore, but could begin turning eastward
   into coastal areas toward 12Z Friday.  It may be preceded by a more
   subtle wave or two, which could contribute to forcing for convective
   development.  Inland of coastal areas any appreciable risk for
   convection accompanied by lightning probably will be maximized late
   this afternoon west of the Cascades, when/where additional
   insolation boosts boundary layer instability.  After diminishing
   this evening, some increase in thunderstorm probabilities may occur
   near Oregon coastal areas late tonight, in response to mid-level
   cooling and forcing for ascent.

   ..Kerr.. 11/09/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2017/

   A relatively benign convective weather pattern is present across the
   CONUS today, with most areas under the influence of relatively
   dry/stable conditions.  A few thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon and tonight over parts of GA/FL/SC, as well as along the
   coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR.  In both areas, parameters appear
   unfavorable for severe storms.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z