Nov 10, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 10 19:36:25 UTC 2017 (20171110 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171110 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171110 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171110 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171110 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171110 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101936

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe storms appears negligible through tonight.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...

   ...Florida...
   On the southern periphery of expansive cold surface ridging now
   centered over the upper Great Lakes region, an influx of cooler and
   drier surface-based air is ongoing across the peninsula.  Models
   suggest that this may begin to weaken by late tonight, as mid-level
   heights slowly rise across much of the Southeast, to the south of
   the retreating mid-latitude westerlies.  On the stalling leading
   edge of the associated broad near surface baroclinic zone, an area
   of sustained low-level convergence has maintained convective
   development near coastal areas to the north of Palm Beach. 
   Recently, at least one short-lived intensification of activity has
   been strong enough to result in lightning production, but relatively
   warm and dry air through a deep mid/upper tropospheric layer
   (evident in morning soundings) is tending to suppress convection,
   and may continue to do so, given the lack of mid/upper forcing for
   ascent, particularly inland of the immediate coast.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   As a deamplifying upper trough progresses inland of the Oregon coast
   this afternoon, any appreciable potential for thunderstorm activity
   seems likely to diminish to the west of the Cascades.  While an
   isolated/brief thunderstorm may not be completely out of the
   question this afternoon and evening, both west of the Cascades and
   areas eastward into the intermountain region, given the lack of
   activity to this point, lingering uncertainties concerning both
   development and coverage seem too large to maintain 10 percent
   thunderstorm probabilities.

   ..Kerr.. 11/10/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/

   ...Southeast FL...
   Offshore convergence appears maximized east of Martin county per
   visible satellite imagery. 12Z CAMs are highly consistent in
   simulating isolated convection developing to the southwest within
   this confluence band. Although mid-level lapse rates will be weak
   (around 6 C/km), a brief thunderstorm is possible in the early
   evening centered on Palm Beach county. 

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   Shortwave trough off the OR coast will progress east over the
   Northwest today. Associated forcing for ascent, steep lapse rates,
   and scant buoyancy should yield a risk of very isolated lightning
   strikes mainly across southern OR.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z