Dec 4, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 4 05:25:40 UTC 2017 (20171204 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171204 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171204 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 73,433 4,246,339 Springfield, MO...Columbia, MO...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171204 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171204 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 74,121 4,133,427 Springfield, MO...Columbia, MO...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171204 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040525

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2017

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK
   TO WEST-CENTRAL IL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms may produce strong, gusty winds from parts of
   the southern Plains and western Arkansas to the mid Mississippi
   Valley Monday evening.

   ...Eastern OK to West-Central IL...

   Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the central Plains
   into the mid-MS Valley region as 90kt+ 500mb jet translates across
   northern KS into IA by 05/00z. This feature will enhance deepening
   of surface low as it tracks from northwest IA to western Lake
   Superior. Moisture is beginning to advance across the southern
   Plains in response to strengthening LLJ and latest model guidance
   suggests weak buoyancy will evolve along a pre-frontal corridor from
   eastern OK into south-central IA. While only a few hundred J/kg of
   MUCAPE will be noted, strong large-scale forcing for ascent suggests
   convection will initiate along the surging cold front by mid
   afternoon. Forecast soundings and large-scale forcing suggest
   thunderstorms will quickly develop into a squall line before
   advancing into central MO/western AR. Activity will be maximized
   along this corridor between 21z-03z with convection expected to
   weaken farther east due to limited buoyancy and cooling boundary
   layer. Damaging winds are the primary threat though some small hail
   can not be ruled out across eastern OK where low-level lapse rates
   should be somewhat steeper.

   ..Darrow/Gleason.. 12/04/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z