Dec 5, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 5 00:44:35 UTC 2017 (20171205 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171205 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171205 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 101,681 7,800,743 Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171205 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 23,198 1,289,438 Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Conway, AR...Hot Springs, AR...Texarkana, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171205 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 101,681 7,802,107 Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171205 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050044

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

   Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK
   AND AR NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible over
   western portions of Illinois this evening and farther south into
   eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas this evening and overnight.

   ...Middle MS Valley into Arkansas and southeastern OK...
   A powerful shortwave trough this evening over IA will move into the
   Upper Great Lakes by daybreak.  Winds veering and strengthening with
   height will conditionally support weak storm organization where
   buoyancy is maintained/maximized along and ahead of a front
   progressing east across the Middle MS Valley southward into eastern
   OK this evening.  The primary factor stunting an otherwise more
   organized and greater-coverage severe risk is weak buoyancy. 
   Nonetheless, a narrowing plume of marginal low-level moisture will
   gradually become pinched over the Middle MS Valley this evening with
   the northern extent of remaining appreciable buoyancy progressing
   southward across the MS Valley tonight.  Slightly richer moisture
   over the Ozark Plateau into the AR-OK-TX vicinity may yield an
   environment supporting a lingering threat for an isolated stronger
   storm through much of the night as activity progresses east towards
   the MS River late.  Isolated damaging winds appear to be the primary
   concern with the stronger storms.

   ..Smith.. 12/05/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z