Dec 7, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 7 12:57:19 UTC 2017 (20171207 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171207 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171207 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171207 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171207 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171207 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071257

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2017

   Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms is low across the U.S. today and tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   A deep longwave trough over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS and
   related cold/stable air mass will considerably limit thunderstorm
   potential today and tonight.

   A couple of lightning strikes have been noted in the predawn hours
   near the lower TX coast within a very marginal thunder-conducive
   thermodynamic environment as per 12Z observed soundings from
   Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Any lingering thunderstorm potential
   should quickly wane and shift offshore this morning.

   Farther east, a few sporadic lightning strikes cannot be entirely
   ruled out today in areas such as near-coastal LA, parts of FL,
   and/or off the coastal Southeast States. However, weak ascent and
   poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that overall thunderstorm
   probabilities/coverage will remain below 10 percent.

   ..Guyer/Picca.. 12/07/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z