Dec 7, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 7 16:24:08 UTC 2017 (20171207 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171207 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171207 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171207 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171207 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171207 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071624

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2017

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms is low across the U.S. today and tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positive-tilt, large-scale trough from the Great Lakes to the
   southern Plains, as well as an upstream ridge over the Pacific
   coast, will persist through the period.  Within this flow regime, a
   shortwave trough will begin to move slowly eastward from the
   international border to TX.  An associated surface cold front is now
   in the process of stalling across central FL, with a relatively
   moist warm sector south of the boundary.  12z soundings from FL
   suggest some potential for deep convection, though weak forcing for
   ascent (outside of local sea breeze circulations) and remaining
   capping should temper any thunderstorm threat.  Otherwise, weak
   elevated convection will be possible atop the cool air mass across
   the northeast Gulf coast, especially later tonight as low-level warm
   advection begins to strengthen.  NAM forecasts are the most
   aggressive of the operational model quite, but buoyancy rooted near
   700 mb should remain marginal in terms of magnitude (100-200 J/kg)
   and depth (equilibrium level temperatures of -15 to -20 C).  With
   the potential for charge separation and lightning production still
   expected to remain low, will not introduce a thunderstorm outlook
   area.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 12/07/2017

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