Mar 7, 2017 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 7 06:11:18 UTC 2017 (20170307 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170307 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170307 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20170307 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 070611

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2017

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible along the northeast Gulf coast
   early in the period, and across south Texas through the day.  Severe
   storms are not anticipated.

   ...Synopsis...
   A surface cold front will move across the north-central/northeast
   Gulf coast and the southeast Atlantic coast in the wake of a
   midlevel trough crossing New England.  The western extent of the
   front will stall across south TX.  Lingering low-level moisture
   along and south of the boundary will support an isolated
   thunderstorm risk.  Later in the period, a warm-advection regime
   will become established across the southern Plains.  Forecast
   soundings from the NAM/GFS show some marginal potential for elevated
   convection near the end of the period across northeast TX and
   southeast OK.  However, forcing for ascent will be weak and delayed
   until very late in the period, thus the elevated thunderstorm risk
   appears too questionable to add an area at this time.

   ..Thompson.. 03/07/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z