Mar 25, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 25 05:40:30 UTC 2017 (20170325 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170325 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170325 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 25,540 2,086,113 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...
SLIGHT 43,441 8,002,374 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL 154,835 13,372,822 Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...Waco, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170325 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 25,462 2,086,916 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...
15 % 43,005 7,977,322 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 % 155,906 13,481,224 Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...Waco, TX...
   SPC AC 250540

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
   TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
   tornado or two will be possible in parts of the southern Plains on
   Sunday. Isolated strong wind gusts and hail may also occur in parts
   of the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday.

   ...Southern Plains...
   The current water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough
   approaching southern CA.  This feature will move across the southern
   Rockies on Saturday before emerging into the southern Plains on
   Sunday.  Models have been quite consistent with the timing and
   position of this feature, lending confidence in a focused severe
   weather event on Sunday over parts of OK and north TX.

   By afternoon, a surface low is expected to be positioned over
   northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward into western North
   TX.  Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the dryline during
   the mid-late afternoon and track east-northeastward across a rather
   narrow warm sector.  Forecast soundings from several 00z models
   indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the
   upper 50s to around 60F.  Forecast hodographs appear favorable for
   discrete supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds, as
   well as tornadoes.  However, limited low-level moisture may prove to
   be a negative factor for a more substantial tornado event.  Given
   the narrow corridor of instability, confidence in the eastward
   progress of the severe threat into AR is low at this time.

   ...Southern and Central Appalachians...
   A shortwave trough currently over the central Plains will track only
   slowly eastward and still be affecting the eastern states on Sunday.
    A consensus of 00z model solutions suggest a corridor of at least
   marginal CAPE will develop on Sunday afternoon from northern AL/GA
   into WV and southeast OH.  Forecast soundings suggest relatively
   cool mid level temperatures and strong winds aloft.  These
   parameters would support a risk of hail and gusty/damaging winds in
   the stronger cells that form.  The risk of severe storms should
   diminish around sunset.

   ..Hart.. 03/25/2017

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